the illusion of certainty.

apparently 'it's easy to be seduced by the nature of logical thinking and its illusion of certainty'

the equation is as follows: 'suppose some arguments estimates the probability of X of an event, good or bad, happening. From a probabilistic point of view we cannot just accept this as the best estimate. The real probability is:
                                  (X x Px) + (Yx Py)

That is, X multiplied by the probability of (Px) that the argument is correct, plus the probability of the argument is wrong (Py) multiplied by the chance (Y) that the event will happen if the argument is wrong.  So in conclusion if the probability estimate given by an argument is dwarfed by the chance that he argument itself is flawed, then the estimate is suspect'.

so we are once again told what we all know, suspect, that mathematical certainty isn't all it is cracked up to be. Biological process leave us fallible and vulnerable, but resilient? enough to get by in an uncertain world.

it makes me think of that scene in all the real girls, 'have you ever seen an animal make a mistake?'